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The Met Office has issued its three-month outlook for the UK, forecasting a significantly higher chance of a hotter-than-average summer from June 1 to August 31, 2025. This follows an exceptionally sunny spring, the brightest on record, with 630 hours of sunshine and temperatures soaring to 8°C above average on the final day of the meteorological season. The forecast indicates a 2.3 times greater likelihood of warmer conditions compared to historical norms, raising the prospect of heatwaves during the summer months.

The increased probability of hot weather is attributed to ongoing global warming and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures surrounding the UK, which can amplify atmospheric heat. However, the Met Office cautions that a "hot summer" does not guarantee relentless heatwaves. The season may feature a mix of scorching days, warm nights, and periods of cooler, more unsettled weather. While prolonged heatwaves are possible, the overall temperature profile could include moderate warmth or variable conditions.

Precipitation is expected to align with long-term averages, but the warmer atmosphere increases the risk of intense, localized showers or thunderstorms, particularly during spells of high humidity. Wind speeds are also likely to remain near typical levels, though gusty conditions could accompany any stormy weather. The Met Office’s probabilistic outlook reflects the challenges of long-range forecasting, with natural variability potentially leading to diverse weather patterns across the UK.

This forecast underscores the growing influence of climate change on seasonal weather, with experts noting that hotter summers are becoming more frequent. The public is advised to stay informed with regular updates as the summer progresses, as short-term forecasts will provide greater detail on potential heatwave events or shifts in weather patterns.